How the betting markets are rating the candidates

Our latest chart showing the implied probability of victory based on the best betting prices shows the fortunes of the four still in the race over the past seven days.

The big loser at the moment is the former Chancellor and contender in 1997 and 2001, Ken Clarke. He’s seen further slippage today and might not even make the second MPs ballot next Thursday. A further blow was the Cameron campaign announcing that it has won the backing of two MPs who backed Clarke in 2001 – Robert Key (who previously had not declared) and Jacqui Lait.

The former front-runner, David Davis, will be delighted that another MP, James Brokenshire, a new MP, has come out for him – the first one to do so since before the Blackpool conference.

Liam Fox has continued to move up the betting following his success yesterday with members of the Cornerstone Group.

David Cameron continues to pick up MPs and his total is now put at 34. All the noise on what he did or did not do in his younger days does not seem to have hit his betting price which is now solidly below evens again. A key factor will be whether the weekend polls continue to have him the most popular choice of the membership.

Leadership Betting
Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.89/1: Davis 2.5/1: Clarke 12/1: Fox 9/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 8/11: Davis 11/5: Clarke 6/1: Fox 9/1

Mike Smithson