Could we be heading for a Davis-Cameron final?

The first day “winner” of the Tory Party conference according to the way the betting has moved is indisputably the Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron. While all the other contenders have seen their prices ease or stay the same only Cameron has seen a sharp tightening.

Although Ken Clarke is still second in the betting behind David Davis the former Chancellor’s price has eased while Cameron’s has seen a very sharp movement and a lot of activity. It seems that punters are getting out of Clarke and even Davis positions and putting it onto Cameron.

A good indicator of trends is the Betfair betting exchange where the Cameron price has shifted from 9.5/1 to 5.2/1 in the course of 24 hours. The “close of play” BinaryBet spread market fix saw Davis and Clarke moved down with Cameron moving upwards.

Betfair’s price on Davis has eased from 0.54/1 to 0.62/1 while on Clarke it has gone from 3.6/1 to 4.2/1. Thus a £100 winning Davis bet would have given you a £54 profit – today you would get £62. With Clarke the winning bet profit moved from £360 to £420. These prices move rapidly throughout the day and night and reflect what individual punters want to back and lay without the intervention of a bookmaker to set the odds.

The conventional bookies are usually slower to pick up trends because their automated systems prevent big bets being taken. So although you can still see a 9/1 Cameron price being quoted it is very hard to put money on at that level.

There’s little doubt that the BAT story in the Guardian on Ken Clarke has been a sharp reminder of the challenges the veteran Tory could face if he did become leader. He takes the stand today at the conference along with Cameron and it will be interesting to see if the first day’s betting trends continue.

Tory leadership betting prices

Conventional bookmakers best price: Davis 1/2: Clarke 11/4: Cameron 10/1: Fox 10/1: Rifkind 50/1

Betfair betting exchange: Davis 0.62/1: Clark 4.2/1: Cameron 5.2/1: Fox 10.5/1: Rifkind 65/1

BinaryBet spread market. Davis 59-66: Clarke 18-24: Cameron 8-12 Fox 5-9: Rifkind 1-3

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Mike Smithson