Polls show it could still go either way

With just one day to go before the Germans vote in their General Election a new poll shows that Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU might just get enough votes which when combined with the FPD could squeeze a majority by a whisker. Other polls have her just under-shooting and the final margin might be fractions of a point either way and there are still a lot of voters who are undecided.

German opinion polls have a good record for accuracy but with things so tight it is almost impossible to be confident about the final outcome. Will Angela Merkel get the majority she wants or will her preferred coalition not quite make it? If she falls short then other groupings, including one that might involve the current Chancellor. Gerhard Schroeder’s FPD, might emerge? The uncertainty is reflected in the latest betting.

Betting on vote shares. You can currently get evens on the CDU/CSU getting 42.5% or more and 4/6 on them getting less. The pollsters are placing this in the 41-43% range.

Betting on the shape of the next Government. It is 7/10 on the CDU/CSU having to team up with the SPD and 6/5 that it will be the CDU/CSU with the FPD. If you think the Merkel might just make it then the latter would be the best bet.

Betting on the Next Chancellor. The best price on Angela Merkel has eased to 1/4 which compares with the near certain 1/20 of only a few weeks ago.

Party vote share spread-betting Spreadfair currently has CDU/CSU 42.1-42.9: SPD 32.1-33.1: FPD 6 – 7.7: Green 5.7-8.8

I never miss an opportunity to bet on an election but I do not feel sufficiently confident to make a call that I could recommend. My gut instinct is that the mood has just switched back to Angela Merkel and I’ve put money on her for Chancellor at 1/4 and have taken the evens on her CDU/CSU getting more than 42.5%.

Mike Smithson