Has the bubble finally burst for the young Etonian?
If punters have got this right then the tide has turned in the Tory leadership race with the former Chancellor, Ken Clarke, establishing himself as the main challenger to the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis.

The chart showing implied probability based on best betting odds now has Clarke RED at levels never achieved by Cameron BLUE during the three months when he was the clear second favourite. The big loser from Clarke’s policy statements on Europe and his speech attacking Tony Blair on Iraq has been the young ex-Etonian and it is hard to see how he can turn the situation round.

As we get nearer to the Tory Conference in Blackpool a clear choice is developing for the party between Clarke and David Davis with Cameron, apparently, just a bystander. The polls have shown miserable ratings for him and I have been impressed at the way the some of PB.C’s more entrenched Tories have now been ready to contemplate Clarke – something that looked unthinkable only a few weeks ago.

Are Tories ready, in the phrase used about Labour’s traditional supporters during the General Election, to put a “peg on their nose” and secure the enticing General Election benefits that Clarke seems to offer or do they stick with the more ideologically pure Davis?

The coming weeks will bring an answer to this dilemma but in the meantime those, like me, who have backed Cameron need to re-arrange their positions even if this means taking a big loss. I originally bought him at the 24 point level on the BinaryBet spread market. Last night I sold at 10 meaning that my bank account this morning will see a debit of 14 times my stake level. With this form of market my winnings, if Cameron had done it, would have been 76 times (that is 100 minus the buy price) the stake level.

Binary’s midnight price fix showed another drop in the Cameron price. Its current spreads are Davis 52-59: Clarke 21-26: Cameron 9-13: Fox 2-5: Rifkind 2-5. The great thing about this form of betting is that you can get out whenever you want taking your profit or incurring your loss. In June I picked up a nice sum after buying Clarke at 9 and selling at 18.

Mike Smithson