After months in which her success in the German General Election was seen as almost a foregone conclusion things have started to go badly wrong for Angela Merkel. Heinrich Martz, who has become a PB.C regular, sent this tonight.

All those who think the election is over had better take a second look. At the moment, the election is wide open. The CDU (42%) and FDP (6%) have a combined 48% of the vote. But the left-wing parties, the SPD (29%), the Greens (8%) and the New Left (11%) have the same percentage.

If the CDU and FDP cannot gain a majority of the seats in parliament, a “grand coalition” will almost certainly be formed between the CDU and SPD. This is due in large part to the fact that major leaders in the SPD and Greens would not accept a coalition with the New Left, a party formed from the marriage of the Communist PDS of eastern Germany and the far left WASG of western Germany.

At the moment, with the media fixated on Merkel’s armpit and largely oblivious to Schroeder’s long list of failings and shortcomings, the likelihood of a “grand coalition” seems quite high. And we don’t expect much to change on that front as the media will certainly continue to pound away at Merkel’s image…

In spite of the set-backs the best betting price you can get on Merkel becoming the next Chancellor is just 1/16.

Thanks to Henrich for keeping us up to date.

Mike Smithson