Winner of our Cheadle prediction competition There were no prizes for the winner of our by-election competition except something which is pricelsss – the recognition of fellow users of the site. This is Mark Senior our winner and these were his answers. 1 – Winning party – Lib Dems 10 points 2 – Percentage turnout – 60 % against actual of 55% giving 3 points 3 – Lib Dem Share – 52 % against actual of 52.15% giving the maximum…
Has the party moved on since Theresa May’s “nasty party” judgement? At the 2002 Tory party conference the then Chair, Theresa May, stunned delegates by telling them that..There’s a way to go before we can return to government. There’s a lot we need to do in this party of ours. Our base is too narrow and so, occasionally, are our sympathies, You know what some people call us: the nasty party” Nearly three years on from that speech the Cheadle…
Tory share rises but the Lib Dem margin gets bigger As we said the Cheadle by-election was always going be determined by what would happen to the Labour vote and the big squeeze yesterday that saw that drop by almost half on May 5th meant that the Lib Dems held it with ease. The skill of the Lib Dem campaign supremo, Chris Rennard, in demonising the Tories encouraged more tactical voting and meant that although the Tories advanced they are…
Can the Lib Dems make the leaflet “rapist” claim backfire? In the closing phase of election campaigns parties often implement strategies designed solely to get their activists motivated and their supporters out to vote. At the General Election Tony Blair created the “if one in 10 Labour supporters switches or stays at home then Michael Howard becomes PM” line to put fire into his troops and to scare wavering voters into going to the polls. The fact that the statement…
What result does Labour want? With only hours to go before the polling booths open our latest betting price chart on the Cheadle by-election markets shows that the implied probablilty of a Lib Dem win in the eyes of punters and bookmakers has continued to decline. From an 88% chance of success just ten days ago the figures has slumped to 66%. So Charles Kennedy’s party is still the odds on favourite but there’s nothing like the confidence of the…
Tory leadership. BLACK=David Davis: RED=David Cameron: BLUE=Ken Clarke It’s now down to 2/5 on the Shadow Home Secretary Our new way of presenting betting odds charts in terms of implied probability has been warmly welcomed by site users including one Wat Tyler, the first person to comment on our Cheadle chart yesterday, who asked if we could do the same on the Tory leadership race. The best betting prices have seen a steady build-up of the David Davis position since…
Enter our Cheadle by-election competition From the betting perspective Thursday’s Cheadle by-election has been an absolute flop. Only one market has been available and that has been on the Betfair betting exchange where punters themselves offer odds without the intervention of a bookmaker. From the media perpsective there has hardly been any coverage apart from the speculation, which started here last Saturday, on what a Lib Dem defeat would mean for Charles Kennedy’s CV. The site, though, has been bubbling…
How punters are viewing the by-election With just two days to go before the first by-election of this Parliament the money seems to be following the Tories with some punters at least believing that the party might have a chance. The above chart shows the implied probability of a Tory win in Cheadle on Thursday based on the latest betting odds and is the first time we have used this format to show market moves. Until now whenever we have…