Is it going to be Hilary vs Rudolf or Hilary vs John

Even though George Bush’s second term only began on January 20th would-be seekers after their parties’ nominations are already talking with potential backers and putting visits to New Hampshire into their diaries in preparation for the 2008 race.

And because Bush cannot stand again there’ll will be fierce fights amongst both the Democrats and the Republicans to get the precious nominations.

If the UK betting markets have got this right then it’s going to be between the New York senator and no stranger to the White House, Hilary Clinton, and the former Mayor of New York Rudolf Giuliani. She’s currently at 4/1 while he is second favourite at 8/1.

Other names in the frame for the Democratic nomination are the V-P candidate from last time, John Edwards and Bill Richardson. Behind Giuliani in the betting for the Republican nomination is John McCain who was defeated by Bush in a rough fight in 2000. Last year there was much talk of McCain going on to the Kerry ticket in a bi-partisan approach but the Republican from Arizona kept well away.

Hilary’s strong position is based on the view, put lucidly by WBP on this site on Tuesday, that she has changed her public profile dramatically in the last few years and is pitching herself to the middle of the American political spectrum. She wisely kept out of the 2004 race and looks very strong, for the nomination at least in 2008.

Where the Clintons – Bill and Hilary – have always been brilliant is in developing a policy platform which will appeal and which is robust enough to stand the intense scrutiny of an American election campaign.

At the moment the UK betting markets have the Republicans ahead as the party most like to win the White House in 2008 which does not stand so squarely with the betting that makes Hilary favourite.

NOTE FLOTUS and PROTUS is the “shorthand” used by White House officials to describe the First Lady of the United States and the President of the United States. It is anybody’s guess what term they would give to Bill Clinton if he returned to Washington as the Spouse of the President – SPROTUS?

Mike Smithson