Can he still get to the top?

With Tory MPs due to vote on how the leadership contest should operate doubts have started to develop in the betting markets over whether the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, will do it.

For the first time since the election “was declared” punters are moving against Davis and the most popular current bet is on him not doing it.

The 2005 Tory leadership race is the first one to be held since the betting exchanges became a siginificant force in the political gambling arena and these offer punters a totally different way of backing their judgement. In 2003, of course, Michael Howard was the only candidate.

The exchanges are attractive because instead of always having to bet FOR a particular contender they allow you to bet AGAINST a particular outcome, and that is what is currently happening with the Shadow Home Secretary.

In the contest a huge gap has emerged between the Shadow Home Secretary’s conventional bookie prices and what’s available on the Betfair betting exchange. With the former the best Davis price is 1/2 which suggests a 75% implied probablity. The last Betfair trade was at greater than evens or an implied probability of less than 50%.

Following the Tory disappointment in Cheadle and the talk of the last three Tory leaders trying to initiate a “Stop Davis” campaign punters are rushing to take up the chance to put money on him failing to make it without having to name the person who will actually do it.

Apart from the exchanges you can also bet against a contender on the spread markets which have been relatively quiet in this contest. At the moment you can LAY Davis at the equivalent of 3/4 on IG’s BinaryBet market which represents an implied probablility of 62.5%.

Mike Smithson