When will Blair go?

On the morning of May 6th the future for Gordon Brown looked relatively straightforward. He had been loyal to Tony Blair during the election campaign and within a relatively short time, a year to eighteen months, he would get his reward. The deal in the Granita restaurant all those years ago would soon be reality.

This was certainly how the betting markets viewed it. In that first post General Election week you could have got just 2/1 on Blair going this year and the spread on the number of weeks of his third term had the changeover taking place later on next year.

How things have changed? First the French referendum got Blair off the hook of his promise of a UK vote and then there were last week’s events – the Blair’s triumph in Singapore and his reaction to London Bombs. It is hard to imagine how Gordon Brown would have handled all of this.

Seven days ago we said “Back Lucky Tony” on the Olympic decision and those that did got 3/1. This week we say back Blair in all the markets on how long he will stay.

Very interesting is the Blair switch project from Betfair which has 2/1 available on Blair lasting beyond January 1 2008. Also interesting is the spread from Spreadfair on how many weeks the Tony Blair third term will last.

We cannot see Tony Blair going soon – reinvest some of your 2012 winnings.

Mike Smithson