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Month: June 2005

Could a Scot replace a Welshman to head England’s top party?

Could a Scot replace a Welshman to head England’s top party?

Can Rifkind impede the Davis bandwagon? With Sir Malcolm Rifkind, who returned to the Commons last month after an eight year gap, launching his bid today for the Tory leadership is there any chance that the former Foreign Secretary can upset the plans of the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis? His pitch, according to this morning’s Telegraph, will be to the more moderate opinion within the party and the main theme of his campaign is that the Tories can only…

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The 2012 Olympic Bid – the money goes on London

The 2012 Olympic Bid – the money goes on London

Would success here boost Tony Blair’s position The betting prices on London’s 2012 Olympic bid have tightened sharply following today’s report inspection report which praised the planning that had gone into the submission. On the international Tradesports market London’s price moved from the equivalent of about 10/1 to 6/1. Paris, meanwhile, retained its heavy front runner status but eased from about 1/9 to 1/7. The best UK bookmaker price on London is now just 7/2 while the Betfair betting exchange…

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Can the pollsters really end their pro-Labour bias?

Can the pollsters really end their pro-Labour bias?

How would more accurate polls affect gambling? With the first post-May 5th opinion poll due out tomorrow there are encouraging signs that the polling industry is coming to grips with the issue that has dogged it for nearly half a century – the ongoing over-statement of Labour’s position which Martin Baxter calculated was 2.7% at the General Election. At a seminar last week organised by the Adam Smith Institute a panel consisting of myself and representatives from MORI, YouGov and…

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No early departure for Blair – Mandelson

No early departure for Blair – Mandelson

Could Brown have to wait until 2008? Supporters of Gordon Brown and those Labour Party members strongly opposed to Tony Blair will be disappointed this morning by comments by the PM’s close political ally and EU Commissioner, Peter Mandelson, in a TV interview recorded for the Jonathan Dimbleby programme. In the immediate aftermath of May 5th there was strong speculation that Mr. Blair would be going soon and indeed the odds on a 2005 departure got as low as 2/1….

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Is David Davis a bigger certainty than Gordon Brown?

Is David Davis a bigger certainty than Gordon Brown?

Do the front-runners justify their prices? If the betting is getting this right then the next General Election will see the Tory Party under David Davis seeking to stop Labour, under Gordon Brown, from securing a record fourth victory. In the Next Tory leader the best you can get on David is now 6/5 with no clear candidate emerging to make an effective challenge. David Cameron is on 6/1 and then Clarke, Lansley, Fox and Hague are on 10/1. In…

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Happy Birthday Merton, Mitcham and Morden

Happy Birthday Merton, Mitcham and Morden

Can the Tories end their 23 year old by-election famine? Unless you aspire to be in the higher echelons of political anoraks you can be excused for not knowing that today is the 23rd anniversary of the last occasion when the Tories won a seat from another party in a Westminster by-election. For you have to go right back to Thursday June 3 1982 – three years into Mrs. Thatcher’s first term – to find a Tory by-election gain. That…

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Will the spending restrictions stop an upset in South Staffs?

Will the spending restrictions stop an upset in South Staffs?

Can we expect a comfortable Tory majority with a very low turnout? With just three weeks to go before the South Staffordshire election that had to be postponed from May 5th because of the death of one of the candidates there are quite a number of betting markets now available. But anybody trying to forecast the outcome should be aware that this is not a by-election as we know it and that has big implications for the campaign. Steherts posted…

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Could Mr. Blair now outlast Mrs Thatcher?

Could Mr. Blair now outlast Mrs Thatcher?

How strong are his opponents within the parliamentary party? As each day has gone by since his third successive General Election victory the widely held view that Mr. Blair would stand aside for Mr. Brown relatively soon has been on the decline. One of the site’s regular commentators, the Labour MP, Nick Palmer, posted this observation….I currently expect TB to serve most of the Parliament and the new leader (presumably Gordon) to call an election for a renewed mandate shortly…

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