Will UKIP eat into the Tory’s vote share?

With just three days to go before the delayed South Staffordshire election it looks as though UKIP might do considerably better than if this election had taken place on May 5th when the rest of the UK was electing a Government. That consideration won’t apply on Thursday and it’s possible that we’ll see a big vote for UKIP which got 28% there in the Euro Elections.

This could mean that there’s great value in betting on the Tory vote share which Skybet was operating until late last night. If the bookmaker puts up the market when it opens this morning then take the 5/2 that was available on the Tories getting below 50%.

In both the 1997 and 2001 General Elections the Tories managed to get just over the 50% mark. But because of the different nature of the ballot on Thursday the shares that Labour and the Tories will get will be nothing like what would have happened if the election had taken place on May 5th.

In the Euro Elections in the South Staffordshire local authority area last June this was how the vote split: CON 8,984: LAB 4,319: LD 2,728: UKIP 7,819: GRN 1,101: BNP 1,989: OTH 977. Although these figures cover more than just the South Staffs seat they do show good performances by UKIP and the Freedom Party. This will, surely, eat into the Tory share.

Labour, meanwhile, will see votes migrate to the Lib Dems and Greens and could also be hit by UKIP.

This view was reinforced by a post on the site last night by David Seary who filed this excellent first hand report “…..impression on the ground is that UKIP doing reasonably well, working hard, seemingly quite well organised. Appear confident of hitting Tories quite a bit. Labour and Lib Dems are fighting each other Labour most of all, Lib Dems also attacking Cons. Impressions are that Labour losing some support to Lib Dems. Labour called Lib Dem candidate 2 seats Crotty, Lib Dems saying the Labour candidate is only a second choice. Hey Ho!!! Lib Dems up to now anyway not adorning lamp posts as much as the others. Some areas had 3 leaflets already from Lib Dems and Tories. UKIP seem to be using the free post well, however their campaign is a one issue and tonight they were claiming big switch of support from the Conservatives – I say they claim because what is “big”….

Assuming Skybet reopens the market bet on the Tories getting less than 50% – even if the price is tighter than the 5/2 of last night. Another good bet to capitalise on a rising share for the minor parties is in Betfair’s Winning Majority market. More votes for UKIP, the Lib Dems, the Greens and the Freedom Party should cut the overall winning majority. The current 1.76/1 on it being less than 5000 is great value.

Mike Smithson

Picture courtesy of http://www.by_elections.blogspot.com/