Take the 4/1 on them still being there on January 1 2008

We normally don’t like very long-term bets because it usually involves you locking up your cash for years.

Thus there is simply no point taking the 1/4 or 1/5 on Gordon Brown because your return is so small for the time you will be without your cash and there is always the possibility that what appears to be a near-certainty today might look different two years on.

There is one current long-term bet, however, that we think is worth making – Tony Blair still being there at Number 10 on January 1st 2008 in Betfair’s “Blair Switch Project” . Someone is prepared to lay this at 4/1 which we think is a great value.

One of the joys of punting on the Betfair betting exchange or spread-betting is that if you have anticipated market sentiment and the price tightens you can can lay part of your bet if and get your stake out even before the outcome is known.

A good inidication of the way gamblers are seeing the “How long will he stay” issue is the Blair departure spread on Spreadfair. This has moved back considerably since it was launched just after the General Election and now the number of weeks of the Prime Minister’s third term is trading at 108-117 weeks. Given that week one was the second week of May the mid-point in this market takes us until July 2007.

When trading started in the week after the General Election the opening spread was 80-89 weeks which took us December 2006. Even before the EU Constitutional referendum result in France the total number of weeks was edging upwards and now punters have pushed the date into the second half of 2007.

On balance we think the January 1 2008 bet with Betfair is the better value because of the lower downside risk and if you think that Tony Blair will do as he has said he will and serve a full third term then this is the place to be.

Mike Smithson