Can we expect a comfortable Tory majority with a very low turnout?

With just three weeks to go before the South Staffordshire election that had to be postponed from May 5th because of the death of one of the candidates there are quite a number of betting markets now available.

But anybody trying to forecast the outcome should be aware that this is not a by-election as we know it and that has big implications for the campaign. Steherts posted this helpful explanation:-

… The difference is what parties can spend. At a Parliamentary By election, the legal maximum is around £100,000. However, at a re-run, the Party whose candidate died can only spend the normal amount – about £10,500. If a party fought the seat at the GE, they can spend only double, but must include in the return anything they spent the first time round. While this may so

On the only big local issue, as the Guardian reports today, all the candidates are opposed to the expansion of a local airport.

In the betting our tip of taking the evens that was available on Labour getting less than 30% is now down to 4/7. There’s been a hardening of the price on the Lib Dems getting 15% or more from 5/6 to 8/11.

If you like winning irrespective of the price then the 0.05/1 on the Tories holding on looks fairly risk-free. The other good bet is against the majority being less than 5,000 where you can get 2/1.

Mike Smithson