The pollsters converge in their final surveys The final polls for Election 2005 are just coming in and there are one or two surprises:- ICM in the Guardian has LAB 38: CON 32: LD 22 YouGov in the Telegraph has LAB 37: CON 32: LD 24 Populus in the Times has LAB 38: CON 32: LD 21 NOP in the Independent has LAB 36: CON 33: LD 23 These follow an internet survey from Harris this morning that has returned…
We cannot wish everybody who visits the site success with their betting or politics tomorrow because logic dictates that some people are going to be disappointed. But thanks to everybody for all that has been done in the past months and weeks to create an extraordinary online community. We hope that it has made the election that much more enjoyable and maybe, for some, a profitable experience. The discussion forums have certainly extended our range of knowledge and understanding and…
Do they loath Blair enough to risk an outside chance of Howard For more than six months we have been saying that what will determine this election will be how the 58-60% aggregate vote share of Labour and the Lib Dems actually splits. A consistent factor in almost all the polls since last autumn has been the way this aggregate has remained pretty solid. When Labour have been up the Lib Dems have been down and vice versa. If there…
UK Elect predicts Labour majority of 100+ The UK Elect prediction which got it to within just two seats in 2001 has now produced its final forecast. The figures are LAB 374: CON 172: LD 69. This is based on an assumption that the final vote shares will be LAB 37: CON 32.5: LD 24. Meanwhile the huge market move has been towards Labour as gamblers rather than political anoraks focus on what will happen tomorrow night. We predicted this…
Which prices will look like this tomorrow night? The above was a live chart from Betfair from the night of November 2/3 2004 and shows the dramatic change in the fortunes of John Kerry as news came through first of good exit polls and then the reality of what had actually happened. For there’s is probably no better way of looking at this election than following the betting and our suggestion would be the Betfair Labour seats market. For unlike…
It’s Tony Blair with a 90 seat majority After more than a month of the “Balance of Money” predictions the eve of poll markets show that punters are expecting Tony Blair to be returned tomorrow with a majority of 90 seats. These represent the collective view of gamblers who have been backing up their judgements with hard cash. The eve of poll figures are:- Predicted Labour majority 90 seats (+8) Predicted vote shares LAB 37.3 (+0.3) : CON 32.3 (-0.9):…
A hung parliament & one punter loses £168,000 An IG punter will be looking at Thursday night’s counts with even greater interest after making what is the biggest reported wager of the campaign so far. He has bought Labour on the overall majority spread market at £2000 a seat above 84 seats. This means that if Labour fail to secure a Commons majority the punter will lose a staggering £168,000 rising at the rate of £4,000 a seat for every…
We are very sorry for the delays and service problems today. This has been by far and away the busiest day ever on the site and although we had expanded capacity to cope we are being stretched to the limits. Please be patient especially during the 1200 – 1400 period UK time when demand is at its peak. Mike Smithson Robert adds: I’m sorry about the problems, we’ve never seen traffic like this before. I’ve just had to beef up…