The Balance of Money prediction on the French Referendum: NON 54.5 % OUI 45.5%

Because French law bans opinion polls on election day and the day before gamblers are having to rely on the surveys that were published on Friday. And even though two of these showed a weakening in the NON position the mood of UK gamblers is to put their money on the treaty being rejected by quite a big margin.

IG Index has the current YES spread at 45-47%. The Spreadfair market which is on the NO percentage has 53.6-55.5%.

This once again underlines one of our betting market theories – that as we get closer to the resolution of a political market the pool of political punters gets diluted by general gamblers who push up the spread on the favourite. This happened in a big way at the General Election where those who were buying Labour seats on May 4th and 5th lost a lot of money.

With the poll margin getting closer on Friday we think that today’s result will be much closer than the spread-markets are predicting and there’s a good chance of a profit betting against the NO percentage.

Mike Smithson