Is 12/1 against him not lasting the year a good bet?

With only the details of the General Election to be tidied up the next political betting market to open is on Tony Blair’s future. In which year will he step down? William Hill are offering:

2005 12/1: 2006 9/4: 2007 5/4: 2008 3/1: 2009 8/1: 2010 or later 20/1

We think that the 2005 price looks like a great value bet at 12/1. If there is going to be a move against him then surely he is at his most vulnerable now. In the immediate afrermath of the election many candidates, MPs and party officials have fresh in their memory the problems they had on the doorstep trying to deal with the “Blair” issue with reluctant supporters. This might happen quite quickly.

We do not know how this will come about but the price looks very good. So far the market does not appear to be online.

Mike Smithson