With almost all of the results for Grerat Britian now in we can start drawing some conclusions.
From a site perspective a big winner appears to have been the BALANCE of MONEY predictions which will probably end up being closer to the actual seats results than other predictors. They were certainly a much better way or working out what seats from a given vote share would produce.
We were also pleased that the concept of”tactical unwind” happened and that the potential for the Lib Dems in university seats, first noted here last June, played a major part. Our suggestion yesterday that the potential for a disproportionatly poorer performance for Labour in its marginals also seems to have been the case.
The other spread markets seemed to have been good reflection of what actually happened.
The pollsters had a much better election than 2001 but the tendency to overstate Labour is still there – though admittedly by a much smaller margin.
Having been up all night I need some sleep. There’ll be time for much more detailed analysis later.