What pointers will we get from Labour’s expected victory here

Given the amazing performance of Sunderland South last time in being first to declare ‘s hard to see any other seat getting a look in. For the declaration of Chris Mullin’s victory from Wearside came at just 10-43 pm – three minutes faster than what was achieved in 1997. The time margin over the runner-up was so great that if it had been a horse race or an athletics event there would have been a full doping inquiry!

Last time this was the result in percentage terms in percentage terms:- LAB 63.88%: CON 20.05%: LD 11.78%. If the votes go according to the eve of poll national vote trends calculated by Martin Baxter then we would expect LAB 56.95%: CON 19.41%: LD 17.12%

So if any of the three parties is doing much better or much worse than the Baxter prediction then we’ll get a reasonable pointer to how they’ll be doing nationally.

The turnout in 2001 was 48.2%. If this is down sharply then it might indicate that Labour has had problems getting its vote out in its hearland seats.

The actual votes last time were:- LAB 19,921: CON 6,254: LD 3,675

Most betting markets are staying open through the night.

Mike Smithson