Do they loath Blair enough to risk an outside chance of Howard

For more than six months we have been saying that what will determine this election will be how the 58-60% aggregate vote share of Labour and the Lib Dems actually splits.

A consistent factor in almost all the polls since last autumn has been the way this aggregate has remained pretty solid. When Labour have been up the Lib Dems have been down and vice versa. If there is seepage in the Labour vote tomorrow then the likely beneficiary will be the Lib Dems and if that happens could we see them climb about the 24% maximum poll share that they have had during the campaign.

A key factor is how successful the massive Labour spin offensive on the dangers of voting Lib Dem has been on potential waverers. Do these people loath Tony Blair so much that they are prepared to risk the admittedly remote possibility of Michael Howard?

Could it be that the apparent lack of plausibility in Labour’s claims will further reinforce views that the party is not to be trusted?

One reason why I have not made a final call on this General Election is that I cannot work out the answer to my question. On the face of it things look great for Labour but everybody I seem to meet tells me that this time they are not voting that way again tomorrow. Yet this has not been picked up by the polls.

My main bets are on the Lib Dem vote share going up, the Labour vote share being less than 38.6% and the number of seats changing hands being more than 47.

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Mike Smithson