UK Elect predicts Labour majority of 100+

The UK Elect prediction which got it to within just two seats in 2001 has now produced its final forecast. The figures are LAB 374: CON 172: LD 69. This is based on an assumption that the final vote shares will be LAB 37: CON 32.5: LD 24.

Meanwhile the huge market move has been towards Labour as gamblers rather than political anoraks focus on what will happen tomorrow night. We predicted this in December and suggested that the market would become less sophisticated and would follow the favourite.

Labour spreads: IG Index 364-368: Sporting Index 362-366: Spreadfair 364.6- 366.2

Tory spreads: IG Index 184-188: Sporting Index 184-188: Spreadfair 186-189

Lib Dem spreads: IG Index 64-67: Sporting Index 65-67: Spreadfair 65.1-66.8

With a spread-bet you “buy” or “sell” at the prices offered and your winnings or losses are calculated by taking the difference between the price you bet at multiplied by your stake level. Thus a £20 Lib Dem buy bet at 67 seats would produce wininngs of £100 if the party gets 72 MPs.

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SERVICE PROBLEMS Traffic is at unprecedented levels and this keeps on taking us down. My son, Robert, is doing a brilliant job but we may go down again.

To reduce pressure we have reduced the number of articles on the opening page to four and will be cutting down on the pictures. Please accept our apologies.

Mike Smithson