The pollsters converge in their final surveys

The final polls for Election 2005 are just coming in and there are one or two surprises:-

ICM in the Guardian has LAB 38: CON 32: LD 22

YouGov in the Telegraph has LAB 37: CON 32: LD 24

Populus in the Times has LAB 38: CON 32: LD 21

NOP in the Independent has LAB 36: CON 33: LD 23

These follow an internet survey from Harris this morning that has returned to UK polling after several years of not carrying out surveys here. It’s “absolutely certain to vote” figures were LAB 38: CON 32: LD 22

The extraordinary feature is how close all five surveys are. Labour is in a range of just 36-38%; the Tories are on 32-34% and the Lib Dems are between 21-23%. These are much closer than the range of polls at the 2001 or the 1997 General Elections.

What these polls will not do is end the argument over which methodology is best. The internet pollster, YouGov has figures which look similar to those of ICM’s and Populus

The big surprise is NOP which is showing the smallest Labour lead.

Will this be the General Election when not all the polls overstate Labour?

The BALANCE OF MONEY prediction for tonight has a Labour majority of 92 seats. The vote shares are LAB 37.25: CON 32.1: LD 23. These are all UK figures which are slightly lower than the GB figures in the polls.

Mike Smithson