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A Mori survey of 613 people with disabilities for the Leonard Cheshire Foundation shows that they are more pro-Labour than the rest of the population and they are more inclined to vote. Amongst those “certain to vote” the disabled votes splits LAB 42: CON 34: LD 18. In terms of turnout the disabled group 61% rated their certainty at 10/10 compared with 54% for the electorate as a whole. More than half those interviewed indicated that a party that “ruled…

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Tony Blair’s NOP lead doubles in a week A new NOP poll in the Independent with changes from the same pollster last week has LAB 38 (+2): CON 32(-1): LD 21(nc) and if repeated on a uniform basis nationally on May 5 would give Labour 391 seats, the Conservatives 171 and the Lib Dems 55. What’s encouraging for Labour is that 67 per cent of their supporters said they were “certain to vote” – up three points on last week….

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Lib Dem spread decline on the turn With Charles and Sarah’s baby due at any time a punter has made the biggest spread bet of the campagn so far “buying” the Lib Dems at the 67 seat level at £3,000 a seat. So if the party only secured the 46 seats that it got in 1997 the punter would be down £63,000. On the other hand a Lib Dem total of more than the 80 that some party optimists have…

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REVISED Labour lead up with ICM but down with YouGov With the election campaign getting down to serious business after the three days lost in the first week following the death of the Pope and the Royal Wedding two new polls conducted over the weekend have Labour and the Tories going in different directions. An ICM poll in the Mirror has with comparisons on the survey in the Sunday Telegraph yesterday LAB 38 (nc): CON 33(-1): LD23 (+2). This will…

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Can ministers “draw a line” under the Birmingham voting fraud case? Could another Andrew Gilligan Today programme piece, broadcast almost exactly two years before the famous “dodgy dossier” interview, come to haunt ministers in the run up to May 5th. For it was the controversial reporter who did the first serious expose of the then new more relaxed postal voting arrangements only days before the last General Election. Then Gilligan filed a major report on the “Today” programme on how…

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POLITICALBETTING “BALANCE OF MONEY” prediction: Labour majority 54 In order to make the Balance of Money Predictor even more representative we are, from today adding the spread prices from two other bookmakers into the equation. So as well as Spreadfair, IG Index we will now include Sporting Index and Tradesports. This morning’s polls have, as we predicted, caused the Labour spreads to move up a notch and the average mid-point of the four markets that are now included is 349.63…

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