Not much change in the spread markets means that out Balance of Money prediction remains the same at a Labour majority of 60 seats. This is based on where the money is going and represents the balance of opinion of punters ready to back their opinions with cash. We take the mid-point Labour spread price from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index and then compute an average from which we work out the projected Commons majority.
We call this the “Balance of Money” prediction because it reflects the collective view of gamblers prepared to risk money in all four markets on what the outcome will be.
Opinion Polls: The Evening Standard tonight has a new face-to-face MORI poll which shows LAB 39(-1): CON 35 (+2): LD 21 (+2). This is based on those saying they are “certain to vote. The survey also found that that only a third of people believed Labour claims that the Conservatives would cut Â£35 billion from public services – which has been a central plank of the Labour campaign.
After pressing for nearly a year we now have markets on who will win most seats in England, Wales and Scotland. The current price for England of 5/1 look very attractive and this is one target that is within Michael Howard’s grasp, particularly if the Lib Dems pick up a few Labour seats in their heartlands.
Commons Seat spread-betting prices
IG Index – LAB 350-355: CON 200-205: LD 65-68: SNP 5.25-5.75: PC 4.5-5: DUP 7.8-8.3: SF 4.3-4.8: UUP 2.7 – 3.2: SDLP 1.8 -2.3: RES 0.3- 0.8: UKIP 0-0.3
Spreadfair – LAB 351-353: CON 201 – 204: LD 65 – 65.5: SNP 5.3 â€“5.6: PC 4.4 â€“ 4.6: UKIP 0.1 â€“ 0.3
A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here.