politicalbetting.com

Does the Telegraph’s survey tell us anything we don’t know? Under the undramatic headline “Election campaign starts tomorrow but swing to Tories will not oust Blair” unusual polling results of a YouGov online survey of nearly 22,000 people since the beginning of the year are featured in the Telegraph this morning. Unlike normal polls which have a very tightly defined survey time but a much smaller sample this covers a very large number of people over a long period. The…

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How Michael Howard could be a winner on votes but a big loser on seats The main way of trying to work out what specific vote shares will mean in terms of Commons seats is to use the calculator created and maintained by the ex-Cambridge, and now City mathematician, Martin Baxter. His approach, available to all online, is to take projected vote shares and to apply them in terms of a uniform national swing to each constituency in Great Britain….

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Tories up in spite of Flight sacking row In the first national poll to be carried since the sacking of the Arundel MP, Howard Flight, there been a big improvement in the relative position of the Conservatives. The survey, by Communicate Research for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday shows a significant drop in the Labour lead compared with last week’s survey that had Tony Blair’s party doing substantially better than at the 2001 General Election. The figures are with changes on…

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Introducing the Politicalbetting Polling Averages With the declaration of the May 5th General election, only, perhaps, forty-eight hours away a big decision for gamblers could be whether or not they believe the telephone pollsters or are they going to put their money on those firms that use other methods to assess public opinion. For a big gap has emerged between the firms that rely on the phone and those that don’t and during the election campaign we will be producing…

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