Should Kennedy be gloomy or happy – who knows?

The first of the polls for the Sunday papers are now out and the big variation is over the Lib Dems. One has them down at 18% while another has them 23% – a variation of more than a quarter. The pollsters cannot all be right and this could have a big impact on the final result.

The Sunday polls with comparisons on the last similar survey from the same pollster are:-

ICM in the Sunday Telegraph – Lab 39 (nc): Con 33(nc): LD 21 (-1)

YouGov in the Sunday Times Lab 37 (nc): Con 33 (-1) LD 23 (+1)

Communicate Research for the Indy on Sunday Lab 40 (nc): Con 35 (+1) LD 18 (-2)

The Tory-Labour margin seems to have followed the pattern of other polls in the past week and is fairly constant. It is just the Lib Dem total that is moving about with no consistent trend.

There is not a lot here to push the spread markets in one direction or another.

NOTE: This article will be updated when as we get more data.

Mike Smithson