5am UPDATE

5am UPDATE

Lib Dems advancing in most surveys

We understand that there are going to be at least five news polls tonight for tomorrow’s papers. In all cases we have compared the polls with what the same pollster was reporting last time.

First up – from YouGov for the Sunday Times has LAB 36 (-2): CON 35 (+2): LD 23 (+1). This should ease some of the conerns in the Tory camp after the shock 5% Labour lead that the internet pollster was reporting only yesterday. YouGov is highly price sensitive and could affect the spread markets.

Second up – from Communicate Research for the Indy on Sunday – has LAB 40 (nc): CON 34 (nc): LD 20 (+4). We understand that this was the first CR poll to prompt by party name which might account for part of their reported Lib Dem surge. CR do not weight by what respondents said they voted for last time which, based on the detailed figures from the phone pollsters who do, gives a huge bonus to Labour.

Third up – from ICM for tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph – was reported by BBC News 24 as having – LAB 40 (+1): CON 30 (-3): LD 22 (+1). Again the Lib Dems are doing well but the Lab-Con split is totally at odds with what the only non-telephone interviewer pollster, YouGov, is reporting. Also to note that ICM have a “spiral of silence” adjustment that has in one or two recent polls put an extra 2% on the Labour lead.

Fourth up is from the the new British Polling Index – the internet survey run by Essex University academics who are involved in BES – which is carrying out weekly surveys for the Mail on Sunday. Full figures are not available but amongst those “certain to vote” the Tories have a 1% lead and amongst all voters Labour are 3% ahead.

The expected poll from Mori in the Observer did not appear.

The broad conclusion from the latest round of polls is that Labour does much better when those taking part in the surveys are interviewed. If a poll takes place without those surveyed having to tell another human being what they plan to do then the Labour lead collapses.

That is why the new pollster, BPIX, is very much to be welcomed because UK polling has become so dominated by the telephone interview pollsters who all tend to give one view and all overstated Labour last time.

Mike Smithson