Most desired outcome: “Labour – but with Blair’s wings clipped”

A new ICM poll for the website Strategicvoter shows that the vast majority of voters do not want either Labour or the Tories to win big on May 5th. The pollster asked more than 1000 people to choose between six possible outcomes and this is what they found:-

23 % wanted a Labour overall majority of 30+ seats

15% wanted a Labour majority but less than 30 seats

10% wanted a hung parliament but with Labour the biggest party

8% wanted a hung parliament but with the Tories the biggest party

10% wanted a Tory majority but less than 30 seats

16% wanted a Tory majority of 30+ seats

This takes both parties into very dangerous territory and suggests a fascinating outcome on May 5th. If your desire is for Labour but with a small majority how do you vote? Do you stay away or do you go to the polling station and vote Labour but “pinching your nose” – as a letter to the Guardian had it today.

These poll numbers, which must be very similar to the private surveys the parties are carrying out, go a long way to explaining the strategies of both Labour’s Alan Milburn and the Tories’, Lynton Crosby. The masochism strategy seems to fit neatly into the overwhelming desire that Blair should not have another landslide. They also explain the new Tory rhetoric about “not rewarding Mr. Blair with another victory”.

OUR VIEW: this points to the Tories doing better than the normal polls are showing for whatever form of outcome for Michael Howard Tories want the current electoral situation means you are going to turn out. For the various grades of Labour support the choice is not so simple.

Mike Smithson