Politicalbetting “Balance of Money” prediction: Labour majority 54 (-4)

The overnight polls have, as expected, led to movement on the spread-betting markets away from Labour causing us to revise our “Balance of Money” election prediction. Each day during the campaign we are taking the average mid-point Labour price from the two spread markets that we feature to project a General Election result based entirely on how political gamblers are risking their money. Yesterday it was at 58 seats – today’s calculation is if for a Labour majority of 54 seats.

Opinion Polls: Four new polls overnight were featured fully in our previous article. The changes mean adjustments to the Politicalbetting Polling Averages where we seek to distinguish between the telephone interview surveys and those that carry out their surveys by using a different methodologies.

Phone pollsters: LAB 37.5: CON 34: LD 19.25 Labour lead 3.5%
Other pollsters: LAB 34.5: CON 36.5: LD 21.5 Conservative lead 2%

Betting Odds On the spread-betting markets all the movement has been against Labour. One punter last night placed a £750 a seat sell bet on Tony Blair’s party. On the main market’s there’s been a further movement to Labour. Party wining most seats:- LAB 1/14 or 12/100: CON 15/2, 8.2/1: LD 100/1, 189/1. Betting Exchange prices are shown in italics.

Commons Seat spread-betting prices

IG Index – LAB 346-351: CON 201-206: LD 65-68: SNP 5.5-6: PC 4.5-5: RES 0.5-1: UKIP 0-0.5: DUP 7.5-8: SF 4.3-4.8: UUP 3 – 3.5: SDLP 1.8 -2.3
Spreadfair – LAB 349.7 – 352: CON 201 –204.5: LD 66 –67: SNP 5.3 –5.7: PC 4.5 – 4.6: UKIP 0.3 – 0.6
Predicted turnout percentage:- IG Index 58.5-60%

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here.

Mike Smithson