Is Preston just a special case or is there a national problem? If you want to vote in the coming General Election you have until 5pm today to register to be certain of being on the electoral roll for a May 5th poll. There’s been a big effort to get people to get on the list but in one town, at least, thousands of people might have debarred themselves because their forms have not been received. Last week Preston warned…
Would this bring out the best in Tony Blair? As the people of Spain remember the 191 people who died in the Madrid bombings just a year ago what would be the impact on a UK General Election if a terror outrage on this scale happened in the run-up to polling? Would Tony Blair’s support for George Bush and his tough stance on terror reinforce the desire of voters for a third Labour term or would the Prime Minister be…
Is this an option if peers don’t fall into line? The BBC’s Political Editor, Andrew Marr, reported at lunchtime that there was talk at Westminster of Tony Blair calling an early election if no agreement can be reached with on the controversial anti-terror law plans. With the deadline for the bill to be passed getting closer and closer could Marr be right and this be a serious possibility? The Prime Minister could make a strong case that this was was…
The city mathematician, Martin Baxter (above) , has produced his latest prediction based on appyling the changes in the latest polls, weighted for sample size, to what happened in 2001 on a uniform national swing. Baxter’s latest vote shares are: LAB 39.09: CON 33.4: LD 19.32. His calculator produces this predicted House of Commons – LAB 388: CON 176: LD 52. There are three things that could go wrong with this prediction: the poll figures might be overstating Labour’s margin;…
The first scalp for Lynton Crosby? A report in today’s Sun by the paper’s political editor, Trevor Kavanagh says that Tony Blair is preparing to sideline the head of Labour’s election campaign, Alan Milburn. This follows fears of a Tory revival. According to Kavanagh, who has a reputation for getting all the top Downing Street scoops, Milburn “is seen as a flop”. He makes way for Gordon Brown, who only last week was hailed by Blair as the “best Chancellor…
Are Hain’s concerns more than just campaign rhetoric? This week’s 7% Populus Poll lead might have calmed some Labour nerves but it might also have reinforced what some party strategists think could be the real problem – complacency. In comments a couple of days ago the Commons leader, Peter Hain, reported that after a tour of 20 key marginals he had found a worrying level of apathy among supporters that was of a magnitude that could let the Tories back…
The money moves away from Labour after peers adopt Howard’s terror measure Labour’s troubles getting the anti-terror bill through the Lord rather than today’s Populus Poll in the Times have dominated the General Election betting markets which have seen sharp moves to the Tories. On the main “who will win most seats” market the Betfair exchange price on the Tories has moved to 6.4/1 after being at 7.4/1 yesterday and 10/1 just over a fortnight ago. That is a major…
No “Margaret’s shoulder” bonus for the Tories The February poll by Populus for the Times shows no improvement for the Tories. The only change is a 2% switch between Labour and the Lib Dems – a move that might have been helped by the fact that interviewing took place during the party’s Spring Conference when they were getting more TV time than usual. These are the party shares with changes from February: LAB 39 (-2): CON 32 (nc): LD 20…