Did Tony Blair call it wrongly on the terror bill?

The first poll since last week’s parliamentary battle on the terror laws shows a big move to the Tories. NOP’s monthly poll for the Independent has with changes from their poll a month LAB 39(-3): CON 34% (+4): LD 19%(+1). The survey was carried out between Friday and Sunday, so would have been mainly in the aftermath of the Parliamentary battle.

Last week the view was that Tory and Lib Dem concerns about the human rights issues in the terror legislation would not play well with an electorate more concerned about public safety.

What’s really striking is that unlike most other falls in the Labour lead, this is the mostly the result of a direct swing from Labour to the Conservatives.

It is also clear that the total for “others” has been squeezed and there’s almost no support for UKIP/Veritas anymore.

Labour campaigners will note that NOP’s poll last month really was out of line with what the other polls were reporting. No other pollster had anything like NOP’s 12% lead and we noted at the time that the Independent had almost “buried” the story.

Tory bosses will be pleased that their level of support across the polls is now running at more than 34% – so almost for the first time since the ERM crisis in September 1992 the party has moved above the level it had flat-lined at.

The Lib Dems will be pleased that they are still being heard even though the increase in the campaign volume has made it harder for them to be heard.

All this makes tomorrow’s budget even more important. For Labour can Gordon Brown turn the party’s fortunes?

General Election odds round-up.

© Mike Smithson 2005