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Month: February 2005

Is the Iraq war still an issue?

Is the Iraq war still an issue?

Will voters care about today’s Guardian revelations? The extent to which the Iraq war will be a General Election issue could be tested by revelations in the Guardian today that the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith QC, warned Prime Minister Tony Blair less than two weeks before the invasion that military action could be deemed illegal. According to the report, the Government was so concerned that it might be prosecuted that it set up a team of lawyers to prepare for…

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Do women prefer Michael?

Do women prefer Michael?

Why is Howard beating Blair for female support? With the betting markets moving a notch to the Tories following the Guardian ICM survey further information from the poll, now available, shows the potential big gender gap at the coming election. Interviewees were asked to rate whether a number of leading politicians were “an asset or a liability to their party”. Tony Blair came out with a rating of 45-43 in favour – but there was a huge difference between the…

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ICM – Labour Lead down to 3%

ICM – Labour Lead down to 3%

Is Howard’s campaigning having an impact? The February ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow shows that Labour’s lead has dropped to 3%. The vote shares with changes on the same poll last month are: LAB 37 (-3) : CON 34 (+3) : LD 21 (n/c). For the Tories this is the best position with ICM since March last year and suggests that Michael Howard’s high-profile initiatives on crime and immigration are making an impact. For Labour the poll will be…

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Where have all the opinion polls gone?

Where have all the opinion polls gone?

After the poll famine – the feast: we hope! With the opening of the offical campaign for a May 5 General Election only weeks away there’s been a dearth of opinion polls. So far in February there have been just three national surveys and we are now three-quarters of the way through, what is admittedly, the shortest month. Compare that with January when we saw a total of ten polls including five extra surveys beyond the five regular ones that…

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General Election Betting round-up

General Election Betting round-up

The betting moves a notch to Labour Overall there has been a slight change in market sentiment towards Labour although not all the betting prices have shifted. If you are making any General Election bets we would be grateful if you could click on the links below. This site costs now costs a lot of money to run and to keep going without being too out of pocket we hope to receive some commission from bookmakers. Currently this goes nowhere…

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2012 Olympic Bid – Punters stick with Paris

2012 Olympic Bid – Punters stick with Paris

In the wake of the euphoria following last week’s visit to assess London ability to stage the 2012 Olymic Games some UK bookmakers have tightened the odds on the capital being chosen. Paris, however, remains the very firm favourite, and its price only eased a touch during last week’s visit. It is an even stronger favourite on the non-UK markets. The best UK bookie price on London is now 7/2; the Betfair betting exchange has 4.1/1 but with the US-focussed…

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Fighting off unwanted comments

Fighting off unwanted comments

Unmoderated sites like this offer easy pickings for the spam merchants and we have to keep it under control all the time. As users might have noticed we have had a very bad weekend. Until now we’ve mostly been the target of on-line gambling sites – not porno ones. That has changed and we have had to broaden the range of words and phrases that will not get through. This will mean that some legitimate comments might not be published…

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How YouGov’s Peter Kellner keeps the anoraks out

How YouGov’s Peter Kellner keeps the anoraks out

Don’t tell him that you read the Guardian or the Indy Being the one alternative voice in the UK polling industry Peter Kellner, boss of the internet firm, YouGov, is going to come under intense scrutiny in the coming weeks and none more so than over the way those his firm surveys are “self-selecting”. For instead of a pollster going out to find “random” voters to interview all of YouGov’s polls are confined to a panel of more than 50,000…

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