Mori’s 37% Tory share gives market a boost

Today’s Mori poll in the FT has led, inevitably, to money going on the Tories in the spread-betting markets. The shares of LAB 39: CON 37: LD 18 are the best for Michael Howard’s party for years and were only exceeded in the strange circumstances of the 2000 petrol crisis and in the aftermath of David Kelly’s death in 2003.

Following on from the improved figures from ICM earlier in the week it is not surprising that the market consensus is moving to the Tories getting more than 200 seats in the coming General Election.

The IG Index price fix this morning was: LAB 352-359: CON 193-200: LD 68-72. putting the buy Tory level at the 200 mark for the first time in months. You can still get slightly better value with the Spreadfair exchange which has LAB 357-361.5: CON 191.2 – 196: LD 69-71.4

With a further poll from YouGov expected tomorrow it’s possible we will see further movements during the day. YG usually shows better Tory figures than the other pollsters and it’s possible that the new number could have Michael Howard ahead.

With the race looking as though it will be closer than people were predicting the prices on the turnout have also moved. It’s now just evens on 60% or more. A month ago this was more than 3/1.

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© Mike Smithson 2005