bbc

Take the interviewer away and Blair’s party drops 7%

Starkingly contrasting figures to the telephone-based Populus Poll have just been published on the YouGov website. They are from the Mail on Sunday survey on immigration which also collected party share information which is what is now available.

The figures are with comparisons to today’s Populus poll: CON 33 (+1), LAB 34 (-7), LD 23 (+5). It is important to note that the field-work took place a day ahead of Populus and finished on Saturday.

Lib Dems will be pleased to see their share at a reasonable level and Labour stategists will feel uneasy seeing at their poll figure only just above one third. The Tory figure seems to remain fairly constant whatever the methodology at the moment.

Other differences include a 2% share for Robert Kilroy-Silk’s Veritas Party compared with 0.35% on Populus. UKIP is recorded at 3% compared with 1% in the Times survey.

Clearly only time will tell which pollster is getting it right but with such a gap predicting the election is down to which polling methodology you believe.

YouGov, of course, carry out their interviewer-free surveys amongst pre-registered members of their panel via the internet. Respondents type their answers in on their computers in their own time. Populus use phone interviewers who read out the questions to those being surveyed – the conventional methodology which seems to give much bigger shares to Labour.

The YouGov survey also tested voters’ reactions to the now withdrawn Labour posters that have brough protests from many Jewish groups. Current Lib Dem voters said that the posters made them less likely to vote Labour.

The IG Index and Spreadfair Commons seats spread markets have remained almost unchanged.

© Mike Smithson 2005