A good value bet on the Chancellor?

Gordon Brown’s high-profile African tour signing deals to ease the foreign debt burden of poor countries should go down well with many of the potential LD-leaning Labour supporters on whom the General Election result probably depends.

It sounds like a bold initiaitive but as critics have pointed out it is one that it is not costing the UK tax-payer very much. The latest in Tanzania will provide an average of £4m a year of relief. But the Chancellor is raising a major issue that he is hoping that the other “rich” nations” might follow.

The move keeps Gordon Brown in the news doing something practical in a form that is distinct from Tony Blair. It positions the Chancellor well for a post-election leadership contest.

So what are his chances now of being Prime Minister? If Blair is returned with a very small majority or there’s a hung parliament he might be forced to stand down. So there’s a chance of Brown making it to Number 10 after the General Election?

To bet on this there’s a creative betting market run by Binarybet on “who will form the government after the General Election” that has some interesting opportunities. These are the latest prices:-

Tony Blair 81-85
Gordon Brown 1-4
Charles Kennedy 0-2
Michael Howard 9-13
None of the above 1-4

To convert a binary price into a conventional one simply divide it by 100. So the “buy” price on Gordon Brown is 4 which is the equivalent of 25/1. This compares with a Betfair price of under 7/1 on Brown being Labour leader at the election.

Assuming that the Tories are going to be nowhere near forming a Government the bet covers you if Blair does ineed step down before the vote. It would also come good if in the fracas of a hung parliament or very close outcome Labour felt the need to change its leader quickly. Though how the party’s internal processes would work in such a situation it is hard to read.

In spite of this we think that 25/1 on Brown makes this a very attractive long-shot. It’s one of those outside punts that could just happen and is worth putting some money on. Certainly it’s better value than that on Michael Howard.

Users should note that Politicalbetting will be paid a commission on accounts opened with this company which is part of the IG group. Please mention the site when doing this because we have been trying to build income sources to help defray our rising costs. We think that this is better than having the site plastered with advertising.

Mike Smithson