The Politicalbetting Top Ten – November 14 2004

The Politicalbetting Top Ten – November 14 2004

    The week’s 10 most popular political betting markets

As a new feature we plan to list every weekend the top ten political betting markets based on “click-throughs” from the site. We are doing this for two reasons:-

  • The weekly table is interesting in itself
  • By recording the price of the favourite in each market we will build up a good archive showing how prices move. We’ve created a special category so that users can quickly link to each weekly Top 10 table.

  • 1. General Election Winning Party Best bookie price on Labour is 1/6 and 0.22/1 with a betting exchange.
  • 2. End of Tony Blair’s tenure Current favourite is 6/4 for him to go during 2006. We like the 7/2 on 2004/05.
  • 3. US President 2008 Hilary Clinton is 5/1 favourite.
  • 4. When Will Next General Election Be? Hot favourite at 1/4 is April-June 2005.
  • 5. US Democratic Candidate 2008 Hilary Clinton is 5/4 favourite.
  • 6. General Election 2nd Most Seats Hard to see past the Tory Party at 0.22/1
  • 7. General Election Labour Party: Number of Seats 360+ at 6/5 is the hot favourite. Punters are putting a lot of faith in opinion polls which in 2001 overstated on average the Labour margin by 6.6%. Not one single pollster understated Labour’s margin.
  • 8. General Election Liberal Democrats: Number of seats 61+ is 1/3 favourite.
  • 9. Who Will Be The Next Pope? Given the current Pope is still alive this market seems a bit premature. Dionigi Tettamanzi of Italy is 2/1 favourite.
  • 10. US Winning Party 2008 You can get evens on both Republicans and the Democrats. Remember to factor in the cost of locking up your money for four years.
  • The General Election Commons seat spread prices from Spreadfair, which combines a betting exchange with spread-betting, are:-

    LAB 344-346: CON 206.5-208.7: LIBD 71.5-73.5

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