Baxter calculation = Labour 162 majority

Tony Blair is heading for a majority of 162 if the party vote shares in latest MORI poll were applied on a uniform national swing basis. The shares with seat projects from Martin Baxter calculator are:-

LAB 39% 404 seats CON 29% 148 seats LD 22% 65 seats

The surveying took place in the final week in October and the results have only just become available. They represent a huge swing to Labour following the Mori September poll which had the Tories 1% ahead. Those figures were LAB 32: CON 33: LD 25.

The poll has not, as far as we know, been published anywhere and we got the latest figures from Martin Baxter’s election prediction site.

Mori do not weight by past vote and it seems that a big gap is developing amongst the pollsters between those that do and those that don’t. The latter category includes Communicate Research which also reported a Labour share of 39% in a survey carried out at about the same time as Mori. But CR had a Tory figure of 33% and and an LD one of 17%.

So you want to predict the General Election?

With Mori and Martin Baxter’s calculator you get Labour with a repeat of its 2001 performance and more than 400 seats. With the Populus Poll of yesterday and Andy Cooke’s tactical unwind calculator you get Labour about 8 seats short of an overall majority.

Which has got it right? Who knows – the only certainty is that spreadbetting on the coming election is for brave punters only.

GENERAL ELECTION BETTING ODDS.