A proposal for a new monthly betting market

With almost all the main betting markets linked to the General Election we have been looking at how something could be created to bet on that would produce an outcome every month – where punters could test their judgement on the changing political mood.

The idea would be to have regular monthly markets linked to the different party shares on the main opinion polls.

Thus for November, say, with the focus on the first anniversary of Michael Howard’s Tory leadership, there would be betting on the average lead of Labour over the Tories in the month’s Times Populus Poll, the Guardian’s ICM Poll and the Telegraph’s YouGov poll. Thus the “starting” figures from October would be CON 30.33%: LAB 36% LIBD 23.33% giving an average Labour margin of 5.67%.

This would lend itself to spread betting, a betting exchange or a conventional bookmaker market.

For our potential betting market there could be the following options:-
Average LAB lead – More than 6%
Average LAB lead – More than 5% to 6%
Average LAB lead – More than 4% to 5%
Average LAB lead – More than 2.5% to 4%
Average LAB lead – Less than 2.5%

Interest in the “race” would build up over the month because the three polls usually come out at different times – Populus usually in the first week; ICM in the third and YouGov at the end of the month.

We are in discussion with one or two parties who might create such a market.

What do you think? Would this work? Is this something that people would like to bet on? Can you see any pit-falls?

Has anybody any other ideas for political betting markets where there is an outcome within a few weeks?