Kerry now favourite on Iowa, Tradesports and Betfair

The last half hour has seen a big move to Kerry on both the Iowa Electronic “Political Futures Exchange” and the Betfair exchange in the UK. Kerry is a strong favourite in Iowa and, as of time of posting, it is 2 – 1.9 on Betfair.

Tradesports has it Kerry 50.5 to Bush 49.5.

It is not clear whether this move is on the basis of hard information or whether one market is following the other. Certainly media organisations will, by now, have a substantial amount of exit poll data and this will, surely, leak out out.

If these prices are sustained or move towards Kerry in the next half hour then the exit polls are probably looing good for the Democrat.