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Month: August 2004

Monday Call – August 16 2004 [next planned update Wednesday]

Monday Call – August 16 2004 [next planned update Wednesday]

Hartlepool – Can Labour hold on? 9am update Campaigning has started in earnest for the Hartlepool by-election and Politicalbetting has urged William Hill to make a market available on-line ASAP. The date has yet to be fixed but already the contest is attracting more media interest than last month’s two contests and we expect this to be reflected in the betting activity. These are the ’01 party shares together with GE predictions from Martin Baxter based on his latest “poll…

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Has Blair’s New Labour been permanently damaged by Iraq?

Has Blair’s New Labour been permanently damaged by Iraq?

Charter 88 What are the prospects for the “Ginger Alliance”? Judging by the state of the General Election betting markets and the scores of comments on the site this week the big divide amongst political gamblers is between those who believe that the Iraq War and its aftermath has permanently damaged Tony Blair and Labour and those who think there will be a recovery. Only time will tell which view is correct. The “recoverers” believe Labour will get back with…

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Who will be PM AFTER the election?

Who will be PM AFTER the election?

[next planned update – Friday] Would Blair’s scalp be offered as the price for a coalition? A big feature of the Election run-up will be the questioning of the Lib Dems about whether in a hung parliament they would prop up a defeated Blair Government or do a deal with Michael Howard – probing that could expose deep ideological differences in the party. Unlike his predecessor, Paddy Ashdown, Kennedy has been much more detached from Labour and if his party…

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Monday Call – August 9 2004 [next planned update Wednesday]

Monday Call – August 9 2004 [next planned update Wednesday]

How the pundits will get the next General Election wrong We believe that the result of the next General Election will be seen as one of the great upsets of modern times to rank alongside 1970, February 1974 and 1992 when Edward Heath, Harold Wilson and John Major respectively defied the pundits, and to a large extent the opinion polls, to gain unexpected victories. A Guardian feature by two Labour thinkers today notes “..Given the volatility of contemporary politics, it…

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The White House Race – Now it gets tough [Next planned update – Monday]

The White House Race – Now it gets tough [Next planned update – Monday]

Punters should hold their nerve on John Kerry After the euphoria of the Boston Convention John Kerry has been moving in and out of favourite position in the UK as the polls have reported differing messages on the impact of his formal nomination last week. We stick by our CALL on Kerry, first made nearly three months ago and repeated nearly twenty times since but we think that it’s going to be a tough August for the Democrat contender. Betting…

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Labour’s in trouble as well [Next planned update – Friday]

Labour’s in trouble as well [Next planned update – Friday]

Blair needs a clear poll lead to avoid a hung Parliament The fact that only the Guardian seems to be reporting that all is not well with Labour does not mean that it’s not in electoral trouble. Support down by a quarter since the General Election; membership at a 70 year low having lost almost half of those that were there when Tony Blair came to power in 1997; a collapse in the popularity of the Prime Minister, and an…

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Monday Call – August 2 2004 [Next planned update – Wednesday]

Monday Call – August 2 2004 [Next planned update – Wednesday]

Are the Tories right to cry “foul” over the “biased” electoral system? The Tories are said to be drawing up plans to attack the “inbuilt advantage” in the electoral system that in recent elections has given Labour far more seats in proportion to votes cast than the other parties. In 2001 the Tories needed to get almost twice as many votes for each seat while the Lib Dems required three and a half times more. Partly this was due to…

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