How six became four at Populus A new dimension in UK opinion polls was introduced yesterday that could have a major impact for all political gamblers. The front page of the Times was dominated with news of the latest Populus Poll that showed the Tories 4% ahead. There was only one problem – the actual lead was 6% but in a feature on the inside pages was news that Populus had introduced a new policy – to compensate in favour…
May’s Populus poll in the Times this morning provides further evidence that Labour is in for a terrible “Super Thursday” on June 10 when the Euro, London and local election take place. The survey gives the Tories their biggest lead in a non-internet poll since the fuel protests of 2000 and suggests that Tony Blair will be 19 seats short of an overall majority in the next House of Commons. This is the party split with a seat projection from…
With just over four weeks to go before the London Mayoral election Politicalbetting.com’s longstanding call to back Norris looks even better than ever. A You Gov poll in the Evening Standard has the split at Livingstone 40 – Norris 31. But taking only those saying they are “certain to vote” the figures change to 39-34 a lead for Ken of just 5% As we’ve been saying for months – this is the best political bet there is. Get on before…
UK General Election – Backers move away from Labour In spite of all the latest opinion polls showing Labour either holding its ground or making progress over the Conservatives there’s been a marked changed of mood by political gamblers during the week. The spread betting market has moved substantially against Labour and now the bookmakers are easing their prices on the party winning most seats at the General Election. One has now got Labour at 1.36. In the argument over…
The General Election, party leaders and Tony Blair political betting markets could be affected by a new YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday this morning. This suggests that Labour would do substantially better at the General Election if Tony Blair stood down to make way for Gordon Brown and puts the Prime Minister under more pressure. With Tony Blair still there the YouGov figures show a CON-LAB split of 40-36, which is an increase of one point for both…
Steve Norris at 11 is a great value political bet – a big return for a small risk ONE. The only electors whose views matter are those one in three Londoners that bother to vote at local elections. In a low turnout election the real campaign is not what’s reported in the media but the efficiency in which the party machines identify and then get their own supporters out on the day. TWO. The mathematics of a low-turnout mean that…
If Tony Blair/Gordon Brown hold the General Election on the widely predicted date on 05/05/05/ then exactly a year today political gamblers will be counting their losses and adding up their winnings. What do I expect to see? I’m confident that the bets on Labour winning most seats will bear fruit because the Tories would have to be at least 7% ahead to equal Labour. There might be better value by backing the Tories to win second most seats which…
With both this week’s opinion poll and moves on the spread betting markets in the past 24 hours pointing to the General Election producing a big Tory lead on votes but a big Labour lead on seats attention will surely focus on what the Liberal Democrats would do in such an outcome? The Lib Dems can’t duck this one because the mathematics of the next General Election mean that if there is a hung Parliament then the Tories are bound…