Browsed by
Month: May 2004

Will YouGov repeat its Scotish success in London?

Will YouGov repeat its Scotish success in London?

The conventional opinion polls got the London Mayoral Election so badly wrong in 2000 over-estimating Livingstone’s support that it’s no wonder that they’ve mostly avoided this June’s battle. There were six main polls in 2000 which showed leads over Steve Norris ranging from 34%-57% when on the day the margin was just 11.9%. The smallest error was a staggering 22%. Apart from one ICM survey reported in February the polling this time has been left to the internet pollster, YouGov….

Read More Read More

Avoiding my biggest politcal betting disaster

Avoiding my biggest politcal betting disaster

A new tool to help predict the next House of Commons My biggest ever political gambling loss was on the 2001 General Election because I had not thought through the issue of relating votes to seats – the critical factor in UK General Elections. I bought the Conservatives in the spread betting Commons seat markets because I believed that the opinion polls were wildly overstating the Labour lead and that the election would be much closer than was being predicted….

Read More Read More

Why we think John Kerry will win

Why we think John Kerry will win

Unlike almost all the other political betting markets that we comment on we have refrained from making a call on the eventual result of the 2004 US Presidential Election because we have not had a clear view. But now we have come to the conclusion that Senator John Kerry can and will win in November. What has persuaded us is the view that Kerry will not win the election; Bush will lose it. The lacklustre performance of Kerry to date…

Read More Read More

Monday Call – May 17 2004

Monday Call – May 17 2004

Party winning most seats at UK General Election. Our CALL is to wait until after the Euro and Local Elections on June 10 and then BACK LABOUR when the prices will be better. As happened last time the Tory Euro win had no impact on the General Election. The mood might be different now but the Westminster seat distribution means that the Tories need to be 7% ahead on votes to be equal on seats and they are nowhere near…

Read More Read More

Arbitrage bonanza as Brown touches FAVOURITE status

Arbitrage bonanza as Brown touches FAVOURITE status

Heavy betting on Gordon Brown this morning made him favourite to be Labour leader at the General Election. This is the first time he’d been ahead of Tony Blair. The move was short-lived for technical betting reasons and not politics Two bookmakers were offering odds on Blair going that were so out of line with the betting exchange prices that it was possible to bet against Blair in one market and bet on him in another and be sure of…

Read More Read More

Should you bet NOW on the EU referendum result?

Should you bet NOW on the EU referendum result?

Even though the terms of the new EU constitution have still to be agreed a UK bookmaker has now opened a market on which way the country vote in the referendum that was promised by Tony Blair last month. This seems to be totally premature. We do not know what the vote will be about, what the question will be and when the referendum will take place. The odds are not very encouraging on either side – 4/9 on “No…

Read More Read More

Will June 13th 2004 mark the end of the New Labour dream?

Will June 13th 2004 mark the end of the New Labour dream?

How will MPs react if they are on the “at risk” list? For on that Sunday, three days after the voting, the results of the 2004 Euro Elections will be announced. And the form in which these will be presented will be to itemise, party by party, what happened in every single Westmister seat. The aggregate results from each region are used to determine who gets elected. So sitting Westminster MPs will be able to look at the precise result…

Read More Read More

The money’s chasing the Tories in the wrong market

The money’s chasing the Tories in the wrong market

The fact that political gamblers are people who back their views about political outcomes with hard cash does not make them any more “right” than the rest of the population. In fact the nature of gambling is that at least half of all the money that’s bet will be lost. At the moment we see big money going on the Conservatives for a General Election win that could be two years away with all the uncertainties not least because there…

Read More Read More