The Monday Political Betting Calls

The Monday Political Betting Calls


Here we make a call when we believe that the chances of something happening are better than the prices that are available. For the sake of consistency all odds quoted on are in the decimal format. Unlike traditional UK bookmaker odds decimal odds do include the stake. So a price of 6/4 would on this site equate to 2.5. You put on £100 and you get back 2.5 times the stake – £250. All prices quoted are at time of posting.

UK General Election

  • On the main market of which party will win most seats – The way the Westminster boundaries are drawn mean that Tony Blair can retain a Commons majority on 32% of the vote. The only choice in this market is Labour – the issue is what odds you can get. The current prices of 1.2-1.3 should rise after Labour’s expected poor performance in the Euro & Local Elections on June 10. WAIT UNTIL JUNE 11 BEFORE BACKING LABOUR
  • The Number of Labour seats. The bookmakers do not seem to have factored in the boundary changes in Scotland that reduces the overall number of Westminster seats by 13 – at least 10 of which will be Labour. Even so the current spread on Labour 332-342 is risky. There is a huge down-side risk with spread-betting and it is possible here to bet on the same thing, at 3 seats more, with a bookmaker’s current open-ended price of 4.5 for anything less than 335 seats. BACK.
  • Seat markets for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. The relationship between the two opposition parties will be the key to the election and small percentage shifts produce huge changes in seats won. This is far too fluid to make a call. DON’T BET.
  • Party leaders at the General Election. Two markets on the betting exchanges, party leaders and Labour leader haver been quite active. Charles Kennedy’s position seems to be more stable and Tony Blair remains. There’s no obvious good value either way. DON’T BET.
  • When will the General Election be? Small market with low odds and little liquidity on Betdaq. 2005 at 1.9 seems reasonable value. BACK.
  • London Mayoral Election

  • Ken Livingston’s chance of being re-elected is a much closer call because he is standing as the official Labour candidate and not as an independent. Even in the pre-Michael Howard days the Tories secured more votes across London than Labour in the last two local elections. The rising numbers of Tories and LDs are unlikely to vote for a Labour mayor and Ken has to find a way of bringing in other non-Labour supporters. The prices on the Tories and Lib Dems are 11 each which is out of proportion to the risk. To cover yourself BACK BOTH but with more money on the Tories.
  • US Presidential Election 2004

  • The UK bookmakers do not seem to have registered the declining position of George W. Bush. This is now very close and could go either way. Three bookmakers still have Kerry at 2.5 which is really good value compared to the risk. BACK.
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