It’s starting to looking pretty black for Charles Kennedy. The Guardian, which has been the most supportive paper since he failed to turn up for the budget ten days ago, has now joined the media bandwagon with a huge feature today speculating on who will take over from him.

But how will he actually go? I can’t see the LDs creating a situation like the one that saw the Tories boot out IDS last November. If he does go then it will be his decision and maybe the health factors will provide a good reason.

Many in the party are saying privately that CK totally wasted the extraordinary opportunity of the 2 years of IDS’s hapless leadership of the Tories to make the LDs central to UK politcal life and position the party as the only alternative to Labour. Now with the public trust in Blair having collapsed he is failing to take advantage again. My reading is that his heart is no longer in the job and I would not be surprised to hear him make a statement after he returns from the Easter break.

The chances of him going before the next election – less than evens.