Private UKIP poll has Farage behind in South Thanet

Private UKIP poll has Farage behind in South Thanet

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Last night The Mail on Sunday reported

Nigel Farage faced claims of a ‘cover-up’ last night for censoring a poll that suggests he is on course for a humiliating personal defeat in the General Election.

The secret Ukip-commissioned poll, leaked to The Mail on Sunday, shows that Farage has fallen behind his Tory opponent in the Kent seat he is contesting. And he is in danger of finishing third, with Labour catching up fast. 

If the poll is accurate, it could end Farage’s political career as he has vowed to resign as Ukip leader if he fails to win South Thanet. The ComRes poll was commissioned last month by multimillionaire businessman and former Tory Arron Banks, who defected to Ukip last year and gave the party £1million.

Ukip hoped the Thanet poll would echo an earlier one showing Farage heading for a famous victory, and they planned to use it to whip up more support.

But when the result came through, Farage had a shock.

It showed Conservative candidate Craig Mackinlay, a former Ukip activist, on 30 points, one ahead of Farage, with Labour only one behind.

Farage was so alarmed he gave orders for the findings to be hushed up to avoid causing panic in Ukip ranks – and encouraging his rivals.

ComRes confirmed that they had carried out the poll.

This poll is somewhat different from the recent Survation poll which named the candidates and gave Farage an 11% lead but is in the same territory as the November Lord Ashcroft poll that had the Tories 1% ahead.

I still think Farage will win for the following reasons. He should theoretically get a boost with being the leader of a major party, which the Survation poll naming his saw the largest lead for UKIP, he was not named in the Lord Ashcroft polled.

The second way this poll helps UKIP and Farage, is by having the Tories and Labour with realistic chances of winning the seat, there’s no chance (if there ever was) of Tories or Labour supporters voting tactically to stop Farage and UKIP.

That said it might be value to back the Labour candidate, who at the time of writing, was 6/1 to win South Thanet.

Though people might wish to wait until they’ve seen the data tables before committing their money.

TSE

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