Another online Scottish poll (this time from ICM) has SNP with big lead on GE15 voting intentions
ICM Scotland poll for Guardian follows other firms & has big GE15 lead for SNP
CON 13%
LAB 26%
LD 6%
SNP 43%
UKIP 7%
GRN 4%.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2014
The pattern is very much the same with all the pollsters and this must be regarded as further good news for the SNP and very bad news for LAB given that it holds 41 of the 59 Scottish seats.
As has been said many times the SNP surge could make things very difficult for Ed Miliband’s party. Every seat it fails to hold in Scotland makes it more unlikely that it can secure a GE15 overall majority. The next question is whether it can win most seats.
It also makes it more likely that we will have an inconclusive outcome next May which could give parties like the SNP a lot of leverage.
What we haven’t had but are promised in the New Year is Scottosh single seat polling. This could show how the national trends in Scotland hold up to things like incumbency and tactical voting.
It has been suggested to me that well know incumbent MPs might do rather better than the national trends particularity in places where NO di well on September 18th. We shall see.
From Guardian ICM Scottish poll.http://t.co/nsQJT2Cjc1 Chart on leader ratings. pic.twitter.com/U984muCRfe
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2014