This looks like a great value bet

With the main contest in Crewe & Nantwich now a foregone conclusion is it worth betting on the Lib Dems squeezing out Labour for the runner-up slot? There are a whole series of reasons why this could be a value bet.

The odds are good. This morning Ladbrokes are offering 12/1 on this eventuality and are accepting reasonably large bets.

The Lib Dems “final 24 hours” record. Where the party is particularly strong in by elections is managing the closing stage of a campaign. They tend to get the messages just right and all the focus will be on possible Labour waverers.

What do Labour “undecideds” do? One feature from the polls is that a significant proportion of Labour voters from the general election who say they will be voting have yet to make up their minds. The normal polling practice is to allocate half of these to the party they voted for last time and this is what appeared in the headline polling figures. My sense is that this might be too high and a lot of this group might be reluctant to go along with the Tory but switch to the Lib Dems instead.

Reaction to the “Toff campaign”. The controversial Labour approach and all the criticism it has attracted is just the sort of thing that causes voters to stay at home. My sense is that could happen to a limited extent which could make the LD target even smaller.

I don’t think that the Lib Dems will make second place but at 12/1 it is certainly worth the punt.

Mike Smithson