Confidence erodes after defeats and her campaign manager going

The chart shows the changing views of the contenders for the Democratic crown over seven says which has seen “Super Tuesday“, “Significant Saturday” and Sunday’s caucuses in Maine. The betting prices are reflected as implied probabilities and, as can be seen, there’s been a further big drift in Hillary’s price with a corresponding tightening in Obama’s position.

On the Betfair exchange the Obama odds are now 0.45/1 with Hillary out at 2.25/1 – the weakest she has been since this market was established more than a year ago.

For following the “score draw” last Tuesday night when she was expected to win emphatically there have been the weekend’s defeats by big margins in Washington state, Nebraska, Louisiana and yesterday in Maine. The latter neighbours New Hampshire, scene of Clinton’s great come-back a month ago, and where there had been hopes of good performance.

Add to this came last night’s news that Clinton’s campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, has been, as they describe it, “replaced“.

Tomorrow comes the next round of electoral tests – the so-called “Potomac Primaries” in Washington DC, Maryland and Virginia – all of which are regarded as fertile territory for the black senator from Illinois, Barack Obama.

According to the MSNBC count Obama now leads Clinton by 943 to 895 in the number of pledged delegates. That margin could be even greater by Wednesday morning if Obama has good victories.

Mike Smithson