…or will Barack’s polling surge turn out to be like New Hampshire?

I detect a real sense of nervousness amongst punters about the latest round of US polling ahead of Super Tuesday. After what appeared a certain win for Obama in New Hampshire four weeks ago there has been a, perhaps, natural reluctance to get swept away by the latest moves to Obama in the Democratic race.

Yet the growing support for the black Senator from Illinois in both national and state polls has been very marked and cannot be ignored. A new national survey overnight, for CBS News/New York Times finds the race tied with both Hillary and Barack on 41%. Although Clinton’s overall support is remaining steady, Obama has made significant inroads amongst men both white and black. This follows two national polls last night that had the contenders within 2% and 4% of each other.

Amongst state polls there are a couple of surveys from California putting Obama ahead. If this is what happens there tomorrow it will have a major impact on the race and the coverage, not least because of sheer the importance of the state which is massive. Measured alone in terms of its GDP California would be the eighth biggest country in the world.

The chart above reflects the changing Betfair prices, shown as implied probabilities, over the past three months.

What is striking is the way the US media is now reporting the race. The narrative is certainly with the younger contender and clearly this has had an impact on the polling.

In my betting I’m now chancing my arm and selling Hillary on the spread markets – my preferred form of betting.

Mike Smithson