Is now the time to take your Romney profits?

For months I’ve been saying that the best value bet for the White House race has been on Romney becoming next president.

At the start of May I got £1500 on at an average Betfair price of 3.15. Today I’ve completely closed down the bet at an average price of 2.48 – so that’s a nice profit locked in.

Judging when to get out of a position is always quite tricky but my guess is that for the time being at least the Romney price will not tighten that much if at all.

The big news for those who like detailed predictions is from Nate Silver who is now putting a probability of 61.6% on an Obama victory. He argues that based on state polling alone the prediction would be about 80% – but he’s discounted that to take into account other factors particularly economic trends.

Nate can be very influential which is why his piece today has triggered me to switch my betting.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB