New poll indicates an overall Cameron majority of 14

A new YouGov poll tonight for Channel 4 shows the extent of the damage that has been caused by the CD-rom affair and indicates an overall majority for David Cameron of 14. These are the shares compared with the last survey from the YouGov panel on Sunday: CON 41% (nc): LAB 32% (-3) LD 14% (+1)

The nine point Tory margin over Labour is the biggest that has ever been recorded by the pollster and would mean, if the Anthony Wells seat calculator is correct, a Commons made up of CON 332: LAB 264: LD 24: OTH 40 seats – an overall Tory majority of 14. Martin Baxter’s calculator, which operates in a different way, suggests a Tory majority of 24 seats.

YouGov’s methodology does not include a weighting for whether respondents are likely to vote and in the last year or so has tended to show Labour in a slightly better position than the pollsters that do. So it might be that we could see Labour below 30% in one of the other polls that we are likely to see in the next few days.

All this will impact on the Commons seats spread betting markets as well as with the more traditional bookies – see here.

Currently I have range of bets placed over the past three weeks with three spread firms averaging a Tory buy of £150 a seat at the 284 level. Having backed Labour on these markets until the final week in September this has been my most profitable period of political betting ever.

Mike Smithson